SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton Under-21s win with a probability of 79.08%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 8.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton Under-21s win was 1-3 with a probability of 8.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (8.18%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.03%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Southampton Under-21s in this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Southampton Under-21s |
8.64% ( -0.57) | 12.28% ( -0.42) | 79.08% ( 0.99) |
| Both teams to score 60.6% ( -0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 78.1% ( 0.24) | 21.9% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 59.24% ( 0.33) | 40.75% ( -0.32) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.37% ( -0.91) | 36.63% ( 0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.58% ( -0.92) | 73.42% ( 0.93) |
| Southampton Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.63% ( 0.19) | 4.37% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 81.95% ( 0.59) | 18.04% ( -0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Southampton Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.19% Total : 8.64% | 1-1 @ 5.03% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 3.96% ( -0.16)0-0 @ 1.6% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.31% Total : 12.28% | 1-3 @ 8.22% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 8.18% ( 0.19)1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 7.84% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 6.43% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 6.41% ( 0.23)0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.11)1-5 @ 4.03% ( 0.1)0-5 @ 4.01% ( 0.2)2-4 @ 3.23% ( -0.04)1-6 @ 2.1% ( 0.08)0-6 @ 2.09% ( 0.13)2-5 @ 2.02% ( 0)3-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.04)2-6 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)1-7 @ 0.94% ( 0.05)0-7 @ 0.94% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.48% Total : 79.08% |
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