SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 64.56%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 17.98% and a draw had a probability of 17.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (4.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
64.56% ( 0.5) | 17.46% ( -0.21) | 17.98% ( -0.29) |
| Both teams to score 68.38% ( 0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.37% ( 0.55) | 24.63% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55.57% ( 0.72) | 44.43% ( -0.71) |
| Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.6% ( 0.25) | 7.4% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.33% ( 0.64) | 26.66% ( -0.63) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.84% ( 0.09) | 26.15% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.77% ( 0.12) | 61.23% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 8.8% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.05)5-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.05)4-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.03)6-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.05)Other @ 4.83% Total : 64.56% | 1-1 @ 6.76% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.58% Total : 17.46% | 1-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.45% Total : 17.98% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
