Brighton
1 - 2
Southampton

Gross (26' pen.)
Dunk (56'), Gross (80'), Bissouma (89')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Vestergaard (45'), Ings (81' pen.)
Djenepo (13'), Romeu (47'), McCarthy (87')

Build‑up

Pascal Gross questions VAR decision to award Southampton late penalty

Ralph Hasenhuttl insists VAR penalty decision was correct in Brighton win

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-0 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
Brighton & Hove Albion	Draw	Southampton
34.6%	25.84%	39.55%

Both teams to score 54.56%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.33%

49.67%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.31%

71.68%

Brighton & Hove Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.47%

27.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.97%

63.03%

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.27%

24.72%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.73%

59.27%

Score Analysis

Brighton & Hove Albion 34.6%

Southampton 39.55%

Draw 25.84%

Brighton & Hove Albion	Draw	Southampton
1-0 @ 8.78% 2-1 @ 7.91% 2-0 @ 5.66% 3-1 @ 3.4% 3-0 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 2.38% 4-1 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.93% Total : 34.6%	1-1 @ 12.26% 0-0 @ 6.8% 2-2 @ 5.53% 3-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.84%	0-1 @ 9.51% 1-2 @ 8.57% 0-2 @ 6.65% 1-3 @ 3.99% 0-3 @ 3.1% 2-3 @ 2.58% 1-4 @ 1.4% 0-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.69% Total : 39.55%