Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 36.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
