SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.78%. A win for Ipswich Town had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.19%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Ipswich Town win was 2-1 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Newcastle United |
30.34% ( 0.34) | 22.88% ( 0.27) | 46.78% ( -0.62) |
| Both teams to score 63.32% ( -0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.5% ( -1.15) | 37.5% ( 1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.27% ( -1.25) | 59.72% ( 1.25) |
| Ipswich Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.77% ( -0.36) | 24.22% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.43% ( -0.52) | 58.57% ( 0.51) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.56% ( -0.67) | 16.43% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.89% ( -1.21) | 46.1% ( 1.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ipswich Town | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 4% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 3.42% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.78% Total : 30.34% | 1-1 @ 10.19% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 3.98% ( 0.22)3-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.88% | 1-2 @ 9.2% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 5.54% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 3.91% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.5% ( -0.11)2-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.06)1-5 @ 0.9% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.57% Total : 46.78% |
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