Leeds
0 - 1
Aston Villa

Roberts (61'), Klich (63'), Hernandez (84')

FT(HT: 0-1)

El Ghazi (5')
Targett (61'), Elmohamady (80')

Build‑up

Dean Smith: 'We showed we can cope without Jack Grealish'

Dean Smith hopes Matt Targett has impressed Gareth Southgate

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result
Leeds United	Draw	Aston Villa
49.98%	24.02%	26%

Both teams to score 55.93%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.25%

45.75%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.93%

68.07%

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.64%

18.36%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.52%

49.48%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.51%

31.49%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.13%

67.87%

Score Analysis

Leeds United 49.98%

Aston Villa 26%

Draw 24.02%

Leeds United	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 9.8% 2-1 @ 9.6% 2-0 @ 8.31% 3-1 @ 5.42% 3-0 @ 4.69% 3-2 @ 3.13% 4-1 @ 2.3% 4-0 @ 1.99% 4-2 @ 1.33% Other @ 3.42% Total : 49.98%	1-1 @ 11.32% 0-0 @ 5.78% 2-2 @ 5.55% 3-3 @ 1.21% Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.02%	0-1 @ 6.68% 1-2 @ 6.54% 0-2 @ 3.86% 1-3 @ 2.52% 2-3 @ 2.14% 0-3 @ 1.49% Other @ 2.77% Total : 26%