Premier League | Gameweek 20

Jan 27, 2021 at 6pm UK

Turf Moor

Burnley
3 - 2
Aston Villa

Mee (52'), McNeil (76'), Wood (79')
Tarkowski (22')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Watkins (14'), Grealish (68')

Dyche always confident that his strikers would start scoring

Smith reveals "disbelief" as Aston Villa lose at Burnley

The Match

Match Report

Villa led twice but were stunned by a lucky late goal from Dwight McNeil and Chris Wood's crucial header.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 29.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.

Result
Burnley	Draw	Aston Villa
29.11%	26.15%	44.73%

Both teams to score 51.47%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.29%

52.7%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.66%

74.34%

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.25%

32.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.69%

69.3%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.53%

23.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.51%

57.49%

Score Analysis

Burnley 29.11%

Aston Villa 44.73%

Draw 26.15%

Burnley	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 8.58% 2-1 @ 6.94% 2-0 @ 4.79% 3-1 @ 2.58% 3-2 @ 1.87% 3-0 @ 1.78% Other @ 2.56% Total : 29.11%	1-1 @ 12.43% 0-0 @ 7.69% 2-2 @ 5.03% 3-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.15%	0-1 @ 11.14% 1-2 @ 9.01% 0-2 @ 8.07% 1-3 @ 4.36% 0-3 @ 3.9% 2-3 @ 2.43% 1-4 @ 1.58% 0-4 @ 1.41% Other @ 2.83% Total : 44.73%