Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 81.35%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 5.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.09%) and 1-0 (10.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.04%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (2.25%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.