Newcastle United have excelled at home this calendar year and will have confidence from their positive start to the season, but we see Sunday's contest being a step too far.
The Citizens have picked up where they left off last season and should dominate the ball and create enough chances for the likes of Haaland and Foden to fire them to victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 67.8%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 13.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.25%) and 1-2 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.12%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-0 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
0.02) 
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