Man City struggled on home soil against Crystal Palace last term, but they have since scored at least twice in each of their last 12 Premier League games, netting 40 times overall, and we expect Guardiola's men to have more joy in front of goal on Saturday. Palace could also threaten in the final third, but we expect the Citizens to outscore their opponents and return to winning ways at the Etihad. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 81.03%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 6.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.97%) and 2-1 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.81%), while for a Crystal Palace win it was 1-2 (2.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Crystal Palace
81.03% ( -0.06)	12.36% ( 0.01)	6.61% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 47.81% (

0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.73% (

0.19)

31.27% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.29% (

0.22)

52.71% (

-0.22)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.13% (

0.03)

5.87% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

77.48% (

0.08)

22.51% (

-0.07)

Crystal Palace Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.8% (

0.3)

49.2% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.9% (

0.21)

84.1% (

-0.2)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 81.02%

Crystal Palace 6.61%

Draw 12.36%

Manchester City	Draw	Crystal Palace
2-0 @ 11.6% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 10.97% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 7.78% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.03) 6-0 @ 2.08% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.02) 6-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.03% Total : 81.02%	1-1 @ 5.81% ( -0) 2-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 2.89% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.74% Total : 12.36%	1-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 2.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.5% Total : 6.61%