Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 33.18% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-0 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
