Premier League | Gameweek 23

Feb 6, 2021 at 3pm UK

St James' Park

Newcastle
3 - 2
Southampton

Willock (16'), Almiron (26', 45+4')
Hendrick (11'), Krafth (45+3')
Hendrick (50')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Minamino (30'), Ward-Prowse (48')
Bednarek (73')

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The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 37.33%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 37.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle United	Draw	Southampton
37.33%	25.46%	37.2%

Both teams to score 56.12%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.23%

47.77%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.04%

69.96%

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.95%

25.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.27%

59.73%

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.87%

25.12%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.17%

59.83%

Score Analysis

Newcastle United 37.33%

Southampton 37.2%

Draw 25.46%

Newcastle United	Draw	Southampton
1-0 @ 8.71% 2-1 @ 8.33% 2-0 @ 6.03% 3-1 @ 3.84% 3-0 @ 2.78% 3-2 @ 2.65% 4-1 @ 1.33% 4-0 @ 0.96% 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.77% Total : 37.33%	1-1 @ 12.03% 0-0 @ 6.29% 2-2 @ 5.75% 3-3 @ 1.22% Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.46%	0-1 @ 8.69% 1-2 @ 8.31% 0-2 @ 6.01% 1-3 @ 3.83% 0-3 @ 2.77% 2-3 @ 2.65% 1-4 @ 1.32% 0-4 @ 0.96% 2-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.76% Total : 37.2%