Premier League | Gameweek 11

Dec 6, 2020 at 4.30pm UK

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Spurs
2 - 0
Arsenal

Heung-min (13'), Kane (45+1')
Lo Celso (41')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Xhaka (75'), Lacazette (80')

Carragher: 'Arsenal were a shambles against Spurs'

Ljungberg: 'Spurs gave Arsenal a tactical lesson'

Tony Adams hits out at Hector Bellerin

Arteta equals unwanted Arsenal losing record with Spurs defeat

Harry Kane breaks North London derby goalscoring record

Mourinho pays tribute to "world class" Son, Kane

A look at the highest scorers in North London derbies as Kane goes clear

Mourinho: 'Ndombele decided not to play North London derby'

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 25.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 0-1 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tottenham Hotspur would win this match.

Result
Tottenham Hotspur	Draw	Arsenal
50.8%	24.08%	25.12%

Both teams to score 54.88%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.26%

46.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31%

69%

Tottenham Hotspur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.58%

18.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.41%

49.59%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.27%

32.73%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.72%

69.28%

Score Analysis

Tottenham Hotspur 50.79%

Arsenal 25.12%

Draw 24.07%

Tottenham Hotspur	Draw	Arsenal
1-0 @ 10.19% 2-1 @ 9.64% 2-0 @ 8.63% 3-1 @ 5.43% 3-0 @ 4.86% 3-2 @ 3.03% 4-1 @ 2.3% 4-0 @ 2.06% 4-2 @ 1.28% Other @ 3.37% Total : 50.79%	1-1 @ 11.39% 0-0 @ 6.03% 2-2 @ 5.38% 3-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.07%	0-1 @ 6.73% 1-2 @ 6.36% 0-2 @ 3.76% 1-3 @ 2.37% 2-3 @ 2% 0-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 2.49% Total : 25.12%