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Premier League | Gameweek 12
Nov 21, 2021 at 4.30pm UK
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
LL

Spurs
2 - 1
Leeds

Hojbjerg (58'), Reguilon (69')
Emerson (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-1)
James (44')
Gelhardt (30'), Forshaw (65'), Cooper (67'), Phillips (90+4')
Tottenham Hotspur will be looking to win in the Premier League for the first time since the middle of October when they welcome Leeds United to North London on Sunday afternoon. Spurs drew 0-0 with Everton in Antonio Conte's first league match in charge before the international break, while Leeds also picked up a point in a 1-1 draw with Leicester City last time out.

Match preview

Conte's first league game in the Spurs dugout was at Goodison Park on November 7, and it was a relatively solid start for the Italian, with the capital club claiming a point in a goalless draw with Everton. It is now three league games without a victory for Tottenham, though, having lost their last two matches under Nuno Espirito Santo - away to West Ham United and at home to Manchester United. A record of five wins, one draw and five defeats this season has seen Spurs collect 16 points to sit ninth in the table, but they are only one point behind sixth-placed Man United and certainly have a run of winnable games ahead. Indeed, Tottenham will face Burnley, Brentford and Norwich City in their next three ahead of a difficult trip to Brighton & Hove Albion on December 12, while they will then take on Leicester and Liverpool before returning to action on Boxing Day at home to Crystal Palace. Conte has a huge job on his hands to revitalise the North London giants, but a victory over Leeds on Sunday would be a strong step in the right direction for the Italian, who knows what it takes to build a winning team. Leeds, meanwhile, have found it difficult to really get going in the opening months of the 2021-22 campaign, with a total of 11 points from 11 matches leaving them down in 15th position in the table. The Whites have only managed to win two league games this term, which is the fourth-worst record in the division behind Newcastle United (zero), Burnley (one) and Norwich (one). Marcelo Bielsa's side have only lost one of their last five matches in England's top flight, though, and will bring a three-game unbeaten run into this contest, drawing with Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leicester, in addition to beating Norwich, since a 1-0 loss at Southampton on October 16. Leeds recorded a 3-1 win over Spurs when the two teams last locked horns back in May, but the Whites have lost on each of their last four Premier League trips to Tottenham and have not beaten the capital giants away from home in England's top flight since February 2001. Sunday's clash will actually see two of the lowest scorers in the Premier League lock horns, with Bielsa's side netting just 11 times this term, while Tottenham have managed just nine, which is the second-worst record in the division behind basement side Norwich (five).
Tottenham Hotspur Premier League form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
Tottenham Hotspur form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
Leeds United Premier League form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
Leeds United form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D

Team News

Tottenham will be missing Cristian Romero on Sunday due to the hamstring injury that he picked up over the international break, while Giovani Lo Celso has also returned from Argentina duty with a niggle and is a doubt. Spurs will also be unable to call upon Oliver Skipp through suspension, but Bryan Gil and Ryan Sessegnon have both returned to training after recovering from their injury problems. Tanguy Ndombele could get the nod over Harry Winks to feature alongside Pierre-Emile Hojberg in midfield, while Romero's position in the back three is likely to be occupied by Davinson Sanchez. As for Leeds, Patrick Bamford and Luke Ayling remain unavailable for selection through injury, while Robin Koch will also miss the contest. Junior Firpo and Jamie Shackleton could both be involved, though, and the former is expected to feature in the starting XI at left-back, with Pascal Struijk dropping out. Bamford's absence means that Daniel James is likely to go through the middle once again, with Jack Harrison, Rodrigo and Raphinha also featuring in attacking positions. Tottenham Hotspur possible starting lineup: Lloris; Sanchez, Dier, Davies; Emerson, Hojbjerg, Ndombele, Reguilon; Son, Kane, Lucas Leeds United possible starting lineup: Meslier; Dallas, Llorente, Cooper, Firpo; Phillips, Forshaw; Raphinha, Rodrigo, Harrison; James

We said: Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Leeds United

Leeds are more than capable of making this an unhappy afternoon for Conte, who will know that he has a lot of work to do at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. We are expecting this to be a very close game but believe that Spurs will just have enough to collect an important three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 46.21%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 0-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tottenham Hotspur would win this match.

Result
Tottenham HotspurDrawLeeds United
46.21%25.51%28.28%
Both teams to score 52.97%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.49%50.51%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.57%72.43%
Tottenham Hotspur Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.15%21.85%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.92%55.08%
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.78%32.22%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.29%68.71%
Score Analysis
    Tottenham Hotspur 46.2%
    Leeds United 28.28%
    Draw 25.5%
Tottenham HotspurDrawLeeds United
1-0 @ 10.7%
2-1 @ 9.22%
2-0 @ 8.14%
3-1 @ 4.68%
3-0 @ 4.13%
3-2 @ 2.65%
4-1 @ 1.78%
4-0 @ 1.57%
4-2 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 46.2%
1-1 @ 12.12%
0-0 @ 7.04%
2-2 @ 5.22%
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.5%
0-1 @ 7.97%
1-2 @ 6.87%
0-2 @ 4.52%
1-3 @ 2.59%
2-3 @ 1.97%
0-3 @ 1.71%
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 28.28%

Read more!
Read more!


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