Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 38.1%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.65%) and 0-2 (7.4%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (11.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.