SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Braga | 4 | 14 | 10 |
| 3 | Porto | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Arouca | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 | Vizela | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 0 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.21%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 8.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.75%), while for a Vizela win it was 1-2 (2.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Vizela |
77.21% ( 1.41) | 14.35% ( -0.96) | 8.45% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 49.45% ( 1.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.83% ( 3.21) | 34.17% ( -3.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.94% ( 3.54) | 56.05% ( -3.54) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.78% ( 1.03) | 7.22% ( -1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.81% ( 2.65) | 26.19% ( -2.65) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.3% ( 1.24) | 46.7% ( -1.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.74% ( 0.93) | 82.26% ( -0.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Vizela |
| 2-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.67) 3-0 @ 10.2% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.87% ( -0.18)1-0 @ 8.86% ( -1.01)3-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.24)4-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.32)4-1 @ 5.11% ( 0.41)5-0 @ 3.53% ( 0.34)3-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.19)5-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.34)4-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.22)6-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.22)6-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.2)5-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.16)Other @ 3.2% Total : 77.2% | 1-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.51) 2-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.59)Other @ 0.85% Total : 14.35% | 1-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 2.57% ( -0.34)0-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.33% Total : 8.45% |
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