Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.3%) and 1-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Boavista win was 1-0 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
