Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 42.34%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 28.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 1-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
