Chaves and Portimonense head into the weekend level on points in the league table and we expect a cagey affair in this one. The Alvinegros have struggled for results away from home this season and we are tipping Campelos's side to claim a slender victory in front of their home fans.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 30.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
-0.66) 
0.13) 
