Following last Sunday's disappointing defeat against Gil Vicente, Porto will head into the weekend looking to bounce back and keep their title dreams alive. Conceicao's men have enjoyed the better of this fixture, and given the gulf in quality between the two sides, we are backing them to come away with a comfortable win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 69.31%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 12.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
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