With nothing riding on the outcome for either side, the intensity may be dialled down, and a draw looks a likely outcome, particularly with Arouca's recent struggles cancelling out their historic dominance in the fixture, while Gil Vicente's last home win might prove to be an exception rather than the start of a trend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
-0.05) 
0.02) 
