Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 30.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
