Despite playing out three draws in their recent five home encounters (two wins), Casa Pia are favoured to beat struggling Arouca, who have lost five of seven road fixtures this term (one win, one draw). Although the hosts have not netted more than one goal in four consecutive fixtures at Estadio Pina Manique, an opponent with four away strikes in seven matches may not trouble Os Gansos on Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 36.79%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 35.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.92%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Arouca
35.54% ( -0)	27.66% ( -0)	36.79%

Both teams to score 48.82% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.02%

56.98% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.12%

77.88% (

-0)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.48% (

-0)

30.51% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.26%

66.73% (

-0)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.26% (

-0)

29.74% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.2%

65.8% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 35.54%

Arouca 36.79%

Draw 27.66%

Casa Pia	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 10.77% 2-1 @ 7.75% 2-0 @ 6.39% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.07% 3-0 @ 2.53% 3-2 @ 1.86% 4-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.26% Total : 35.54%	1-1 @ 13.06% 0-0 @ 9.07% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.7% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.66%	0-1 @ 11% 1-2 @ 7.92% 0-2 @ 6.67% 1-3 @ 3.2% 0-3 @ 2.7% 2-3 @ 1.9% 1-4 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.42% Total : 36.79%