SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Famalicao | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Pacos de Ferreira | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 18 | Maritimo | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Benfica | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Portimonense | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 30.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.06%) and 2-1 (8.02%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (10.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Portimonense |
40.9% ( -0.45) | 28.89% ( -0.02) | 30.21% ( 0.46) |
| Both teams to score 44.21% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.82% ( 0.19) | 62.18% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.13% ( 0.14) | 81.87% ( -0.14) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.13% ( -0.16) | 29.87% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.03% ( -0.2) | 65.96% ( 0.2) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.04% ( 0.46) | 36.96% ( -0.46) |
