Moreirense have shown signs of improvement recently, and, with the confidence boost of a cup win over Vitoria, we back them to get a result on Friday.
While we do not see the hosts taking all three points, Gil Vicente will be wounded from their shock cup exit, and we see them being held to a draw on their travels.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 51.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 22.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (7.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
