SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.93%) and 0-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Portimonense |
| 31.45% | 28.86% | 39.69% |
| Both teams to score 44.69% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.22% | 61.78% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.42% | 81.58% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.19% | 35.81% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.41% | 72.58% |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.61% | 30.38% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.42% | 66.58% |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 11.17% 2-1 @ 6.84% 2-0 @ 5.74% 3-1 @ 2.34% 3-0 @ 1.96% 3-2 @ 1.39% Other @ 2.01% Total : 31.45% | 1-1 @ 13.31% 0-0 @ 10.88% 2-2 @ 4.07% Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.86% | 0-1 @ 12.96% 1-2 @ 7.93% 0-2 @ 7.72% 1-3 @ 3.15% 0-3 @ 3.07% 2-3 @ 1.62% 1-4 @ 0.94% 0-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.39% Total : 39.68% |
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