Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 42.66%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.64%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.