While Pacos de Ferreira will be looking to return to winning ways and pull clear of the automatic drop zone, their struggles in attack has been a worrying concern this season. Famalicao have been solid in recent weeks and we are backing them to take the positives from Monday's narrow defeat and pick up their third win in four away games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 37.99%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.2) 
