Santa Clara and Famalicao have both endured a disappointing campaign and find themselves at the wrong end of the table. Unlike the hosts, the Vila Nova have managed a few decent results here and there since the turn of the year and we are backing them to come away with a slender victory on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (11.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.

Result
Santa Clara	Draw	Famalicao
36.48% ( 0.21)	28.97% ( -0.08)	34.56% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 44.94% (

0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.27% (

0.28)

61.73% (

-0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.46% (

0.21)

81.54% (

-0.2)

Santa Clara Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.67% (

0.28)

32.33% (

-0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.17% (

0.31)

68.83% (

-0.31)

Famalicao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.41% (

0.06)

33.59% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.76% (

0.07)

70.24% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Santa Clara 36.48%

Famalicao 34.55%

Draw 28.95%

Santa Clara	Draw	Famalicao
1-0 @ 12.26% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.84% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.74% Total : 36.48%	1-1 @ 13.37% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.85% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 4.12% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.95%	0-1 @ 11.84% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.45% Total : 34.55%