With just two games to go, Santa Clara know that they must avoid any slip-ups as they look to leapfrog Vitoria de Guimaraes and secure the Conference League qualifying ticket. While Famalicao ave enjoyed success in their recent visits to the Estadio de Sao Miguel, we predict that Matos's side will go all out this weekend and come away with a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 42.5%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 29.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Santa Clara in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Santa Clara.
0.32) 
-0.05) 
