Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
