Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 43.89%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 27.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 2-1 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.12%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
