Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 28.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.