Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Tula win with a probability of 46.72%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 27.24% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arsenal Tula in this match.