Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 50.25%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 23.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.