Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 38.04%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.