Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 59.21%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 18.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.77%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.