Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 44.48%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 27.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.85%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.01%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.