SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 43.37%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fakel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Sochi |
43.37% ( -0.04) | 27.68% ( -0.03) | 28.95% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 46.91% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.49% ( 0.14) | 58.51% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.91% ( 0.11) | 79.09% ( -0.11) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.24% ( 0.05) | 26.76% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.97% ( 0.06) | 62.03% ( -0.06) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.05% ( 0.13) | 35.95% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.27% ( 0.14) | 72.73% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 12.68% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.36% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 1.97% Total : 43.37% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.62% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.71% Total : 27.68% | 0-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.96% Total : 28.95% |
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