SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 35.8% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (10.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fakel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Sochi |
37.18% ( -0.16) | 27.02% ( -0.07) | 35.8% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 50.85% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.55% ( 0.3) | 54.44% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.19% ( 0.24) | 75.81% ( -0.25) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.72% ( 0.05) | 28.27% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.01% ( 0.06) | 63.98% ( -0.07) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.89% ( 0.28) | 29.1% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.97% ( 0.35) | 65.02% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 10.39% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 8.11% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.57% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 3.41% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.77% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 2.75% Total : 37.18% | 1-1 @ 12.83% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.96% Total : 27.02% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.92% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 35.79% |
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