SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 44.99%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orenburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Sochi |
44.99% ( 1.48) | 24.85% ( -0.3) | 30.16% ( -1.18) |
| Both teams to score 56.25% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.25% ( 0.79) | 46.75% ( -0.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.99% ( 0.73) | 69.01% ( -0.73) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.17% ( 1) | 20.83% ( -1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.49% ( 1.55) | 53.51% ( -1.55) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.05% ( -0.4) | 28.94% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.17% ( -0.5) | 64.83% ( 0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 9.46% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 4.81% ( 0.22)3-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.89% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.67% Total : 44.99% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( -0.2)2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.85% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( -0.34) 1-2 @ 7.27% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 3% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.57% Total : 30.16% |
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