Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Ufa win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 30.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Ufa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 0-1 (10.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Ufa would win this match.