SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 59.05%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 19.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.62%) and 2-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Fakel win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orenburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Fakel |
59.05% ( 0.04) | 21.47% ( -0) | 19.48% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.88% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.23% ( -0.04) | 41.77% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.82% ( -0.04) | 64.17% ( 0.03) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.18% ( -0) | 13.82% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.83% ( -0) | 41.17% ( -0) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.84% ( -0.06) | 35.16% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.09% ( -0.06) | 71.91% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Fakel |
| 2-1 @ 9.95% 1-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.56% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.28% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.43% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.25% 4-0 @ 3.11% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.7% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.29% 5-0 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 3.14% Total : 59.05% | 1-1 @ 10.05% 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.47% | 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.08% 0-2 @ 2.65% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 19.48% |
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