SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Khimki | 9 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Fakel | 8 | -9 | 4 |
| 15 | Torpedo Moskva | 8 | -15 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Orenburg | 8 | -6 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 38.42%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (6.64%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
35.12% ( -0.66) | 26.46% ( 0.07) | 38.42% ( 0.59) |
| Both teams to score 52.6% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.79% ( -0.35) | 52.2% ( 0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.09% ( -0.3) | 73.91% ( 0.3) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.57% ( -0.57) | 28.43% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.81% ( -0.72) | 64.19% ( 0.72) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.5% ( 0.17) | 26.5% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.3% ( 0.22) | 61.69% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 1-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 5.96% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 2.5% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.71% Total : 35.12% | 1-1 @ 12.58% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.45% | 0-1 @ 10% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 8.36% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 6.64% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.25% Total : 38.42% |
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