SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Akhmat Grozny | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 9 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Orenburg | 9 | -14 | 9 |
| 13 | Khimki | 9 | -6 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 53.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 22.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.85%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (6.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Orenburg |
53.8% ( 0.37) | 24.19% ( 0.02) | 22.01% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 50.92% ( -0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.76% ( -0.49) | 50.24% ( 0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.81% ( -0.44) | 72.19% ( 0.44) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.4% ( -0.04) | 18.6% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.12% ( -0.07) | 49.88% ( 0.07) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.55% ( -0.65) | 37.45% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.77% ( -0.65) | 74.23% ( 0.65) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Orenburg |
| 1-0 @ 11.71% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.17)2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 5.43% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.21% Total : 53.79% | 1-1 @ 11.5% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.97% Total : 24.19% | 0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.65% Total : 22.01% |
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