SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Spartak Moscow | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Orenburg | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Torpedo Moskva | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Orenburg | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Torpedo Moskva | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Ural Yekaterinburg | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 44.55%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orenburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Ural Yekaterinburg |
44.55% ( 0.51) | 25.33% ( -0.05) | 30.11% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 54.63% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.15% ( 0) | 48.85% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.06% ( 0) | 70.94% |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.09% ( 0.24) | 21.91% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.83% ( 0.36) | 55.17% ( -0.35) |
| Ural Yekaterinburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.96% ( -0.32) | 30.04% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.83% ( -0.39) | 66.16% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Ural Yekaterinburg |
| 1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.12% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 44.55% | 1-1 @ 12.01% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.58% 2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.33% | 0-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.21% Total : 30.11% |
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