Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 30.01% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.
