Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 45.93%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 0-1 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rostov in this match.