Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 50.06%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 23.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ural Yekaterinburg would win this match.
