SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Dynamo Moscow | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Rostov | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Akhmat Grozny | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Orenburg | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Nizhny Novgorod | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 47.6%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 27.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rostov | Draw | Orenburg |
47.6% ( -0.03) | 24.49% ( 0.01) | 27.91% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 55.97% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.55% ( -0.02) | 46.45% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.27% ( -0.02) | 68.73% ( 0.01) |
| Rostov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.4% ( -0.02) | 19.59% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.46% ( -0.03) | 51.53% ( 0.03) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.61% ( 0) | 30.39% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.41% ( 0) | 66.59% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rostov | Draw | Orenburg |
| 1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.91% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.12% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.3% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.09% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0)Other @ 3.02% Total : 47.6% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.96% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.61% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.49% | 0-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.88% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.22% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.23% 0-3 @ 1.68% ( 0)Other @ 3.07% Total : 27.91% |
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